The Antarctic Treaty in testing times

This piece by Network member Bruno Arpi and his colleagues Jeffrey McGee and Richard Rowe was first published in English by the Lowy Institute's The Interpreter ahead of the 47th Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting, held in Milan in June 2025. The Network shared it in Spanish with the Argentine scientific community abroad.

The authors argue that the meeting took place at a time when the "rules-based international order" faces serious threats, and that it was essential for it to reinforce the Antarctic Treaty System as a lasting example of rules-based cooperation. Australia — one of the twelve original signatories of the 1959 Treaty, which protects its claim to more than 42% of the continent, keeps Antarctica for peaceful purposes only and bans nuclear explosions there — has much at stake.

Three geopolitical challenges

• The end of "exceptionalism". Consultative meetings were long seen as insulated from global politics, until Russia's invasion of Ukraine was raised directly in 2022–23. The war has coloured countries' positions on key issues such as Belarus's and Canada's bids to become Consultative Parties, while civil-society groups push for new governance models based on the "rights of nature".
• The uncertain role of the United States. The US runs the largest scientific and logistics programme in Antarctica, including McMurdo and Amundsen-Scott South Pole stations, but the second Trump administration has announced significant funding cuts — which could weaken US influence and require Australia to adapt quickly.
• China and Russia's expanding footprint. China opened its fifth station, Qinling, in the Ross Sea in 2023 and plans a sixth at Cox Point, Marie Byrd Land; Russia plans to reopen Russkaya station, to be run by Roscosmos to track satellites and spacecraft, just 17 km from the new Chinese base. Both countries have blocked key marine-protection decisions in the Treaty and CCAMLR meetings.

None of these developments directly threatens the Treaty, the authors conclude, but Australia and like-minded countries will need to work together to reach consensus on sensitive issues — such as new Consultative Parties and the protection of threatened species — and to strengthen Australia's scientific and logistical commitment in the region.

Read the original article in The Interpreter.